Hurricane Florence: Stunningly Expert Rails Forecasts, Problems Amongst Intensity
Hurricane Florence is has of late made landfall nigh Wilmington, North Carolina equally a category 1 tempest alongside sustained winds of about 85 mph (see latest radar ikon below). It is right away weakening rapidly.
Very few locations over province accept experienced hurricane forcefulness winds (SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph or more) thus far, merely several coastal locations accept received gusts of 70-90 mph (see max gust map below)
This tempest is a "classic" on how good our forecast models accept done: superb rail prediction together with mediocre intensity forecasts. And the U.S. models did really good on track--better than the European Center model.
To illustrate, hither are the forecast tracks from several models initialized on September ninth (last Sunday) at xi AM PDT. Stunningly skillful prediction....aiming the hurricane landfall on the southern N. Carolina coast. All the models were doing the same thing...giving us some confidence inward the track.
Absolutely marvelous.
Looking at the position errors of the tempest (which includes the position along the rail equally well), shows increasing position errors inward fourth dimension for the diverse models, alongside the U.S. GFS model beingness the best. Nice to see. (US GFS is AVNO together with the European Model is ECMF, plot produced past times Professor Brian Tang, U. of Albany)
Clearly, rail forecasts are very, really important. Anyone alongside a fleck of feel volition educate or evacuate (in vulnerable areas similar the coast) if a hurricane is heading towards them.
But it would live prissy to instruct intensity right equally well. For the same 120 lx minutes catamenia shown inward the rail figure above, hither is the intensity (central pressure level of Florence) that was observed (black line) together with forecast (colored lines). The observed tempest strengthened apace during the early on period, leveled off, together with and thus weakened . The operational global model (GFS, shown past times the bluish AVNO line) was initially also weak together with was also rigid at the end. The novel operational model (FV-3) was non deep plenty for almost of the storm. The high resolution USA hurricane model (HWRF, majestic line) was agency also deep to a greater extent than of the time, including at landfall.
As I accept noted before, getting rail right demands getting the large scale stream correct--which nosotros tin pretty much attain today. But getting intensity right demands nosotros copy the internal dynamics of the tempest at high resolution...and attain it correctly days ahead. Very hard to do...and may live impossible according to some inquiry (including inquiry done at the University of Washington past times my colleague Greg Hakim together with students.)
One finally slice of interesting hurricane information. Do y'all intend the publish of landfalling storms on the U.S. continental (mainly the SE US) is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same? I suspect many would tell increasing, based on the considerable hype inward the media.
The truth? H5N1 ho-hum refuse during the past times few decades equally shown past times several papers inward the peer-reviewed literature together with regime statistics. Here is a plot (a) from a 2018 newspaper past times Klotzbach et al. inward the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society for hurricane landfalls on the continental USA (1900-2017). Slight downward trend. Similar tendency for major (categories three together with above) hurricanes.
The large interrogation is what volition global warming attain to the frequency of US landfalling hurricanes. Some inquiry suggests that the almost intense hurricanes volition instruct to a greater extent than frequent, merely the full publish volition decline. But what volition hap to landfalling U.S. storms is something that is actively beingness studied.
Very few locations over province accept experienced hurricane forcefulness winds (SUSTAINED winds of 74 mph or more) thus far, merely several coastal locations accept received gusts of 70-90 mph (see max gust map below)
This tempest is a "classic" on how good our forecast models accept done: superb rail prediction together with mediocre intensity forecasts. And the U.S. models did really good on track--better than the European Center model.
To illustrate, hither are the forecast tracks from several models initialized on September ninth (last Sunday) at xi AM PDT. Stunningly skillful prediction....aiming the hurricane landfall on the southern N. Carolina coast. All the models were doing the same thing...giving us some confidence inward the track.
Absolutely marvelous.
But it would live prissy to instruct intensity right equally well. For the same 120 lx minutes catamenia shown inward the rail figure above, hither is the intensity (central pressure level of Florence) that was observed (black line) together with forecast (colored lines). The observed tempest strengthened apace during the early on period, leveled off, together with and thus weakened . The operational global model (GFS, shown past times the bluish AVNO line) was initially also weak together with was also rigid at the end. The novel operational model (FV-3) was non deep plenty for almost of the storm. The high resolution USA hurricane model (HWRF, majestic line) was agency also deep to a greater extent than of the time, including at landfall.
As I accept noted before, getting rail right demands getting the large scale stream correct--which nosotros tin pretty much attain today. But getting intensity right demands nosotros copy the internal dynamics of the tempest at high resolution...and attain it correctly days ahead. Very hard to do...and may live impossible according to some inquiry (including inquiry done at the University of Washington past times my colleague Greg Hakim together with students.)
One finally slice of interesting hurricane information. Do y'all intend the publish of landfalling storms on the U.S. continental (mainly the SE US) is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same? I suspect many would tell increasing, based on the considerable hype inward the media.
The truth? H5N1 ho-hum refuse during the past times few decades equally shown past times several papers inward the peer-reviewed literature together with regime statistics. Here is a plot (a) from a 2018 newspaper past times Klotzbach et al. inward the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society for hurricane landfalls on the continental USA (1900-2017). Slight downward trend. Similar tendency for major (categories three together with above) hurricanes.
The large interrogation is what volition global warming attain to the frequency of US landfalling hurricanes. Some inquiry suggests that the almost intense hurricanes volition instruct to a greater extent than frequent, merely the full publish volition decline. But what volition hap to landfalling U.S. storms is something that is actively beingness studied.
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